HOW & WHY SPORTSCARDS ARE SOLID INVESTMENTS
The number of NHL sportscards in the marketplace and average number of cards per player
According to http://www.beckett.com/price-guides/hockey (dated January 8th, 2015) there are 708,078 hockey sportscards in the marketplace worth $ $ 9, 322,573.47 (U.S.) and spread out through 18350 different sets. This averages out to each card being worth $ 13.17 (U.S.) on a per capita basis and a 39 player card average per set, historically taking all hockey cards ever manufactured into consideration. According to information found on www.nhl.com 6478 skaters & 730 goaltenders (dated January 8th, 2015) have played at least one NHL game in their career. This averages to approx. 98 sportscards per player, on a per capita basis, though depending on length of their career, era in which card collectibles were available during their careers and popularity in the game some players may only have one official rookie card to their name or thousands of cards attributed to their name. These figures though give a general impression for an investor as to why
www.statsworldcollectibles.com considers the top 10 to 20 cards per category, maximum per player to ensure the best of those per capita 98 hockey sportscards per player are singled out, for astute collectors and investors. Based on the 39 player card average per
set amount this site focuses on the top 9 goalie winners, top 9 point producing defencemen and top 9 overall point producers per franchise along with 787 'active' players per franchise, having played a minimum of 1 NHL game during this current NHL season. This amounts to approx. 1597 (dated January 8th, 2015) top per franchise players rookie cards in the marketplace which hold nominal value for most investors and collectors at the present time. Considering that each of these players top 9 cards are, within time, going to be written up in the marketplace section of this site this means 15970 of the 708,078 hockey sportscards (top 2 % of the grand total - which happens to be close to yearly inflation rate in general economy) are focused on and given priority over the rest as their playing stats indicate the highest probability of collector and investor recognition and potential for investment value growth over time. The best of the best maintains value and surpasses it, as a general view. Collectors and investors do well to factor in popularity, player stats and economic value as good indicators of why, what and who to invest in.
The determination of the selected players as been based on the individual statistical performances of each player while the selected items has factored in scarcity of the eldest top rookie cards, autographed and limited numbered cards per player. It is the assumption, taken by this site that a collector who would own the top 10 - 20 cards of the 'retro' top goalies, 'Retro' point producers and 'Retro' defenceman of every NHL franchise plus own the top 'active' NHL roster top producers per team rookie cards and those same players' top 10 'cards to own' would approx own about 8400 cards in their collection and have the best of the best the marketplace has ever had to offer and what the marketplace has most vested interest in. This, in theory, suggests less than 1% of the NHL sportscards in the marketplace are the main focus of this site and are for all tense and purposes the best of the best the industry has had to offer. Note that our lists change and will evolve over time due to marketplace fluctuations and in depth analysis by those investing in the updating of information found on this site;-but surely is the best of all guides to help collectors focus their collectors' and investment efforts, as it pertains to NHL sportcard collecting over time.
set amount this site focuses on the top 9 goalie winners, top 9 point producing defencemen and top 9 overall point producers per franchise along with 787 'active' players per franchise, having played a minimum of 1 NHL game during this current NHL season. This amounts to approx. 1597 (dated January 8th, 2015) top per franchise players rookie cards in the marketplace which hold nominal value for most investors and collectors at the present time. Considering that each of these players top 9 cards are, within time, going to be written up in the marketplace section of this site this means 15970 of the 708,078 hockey sportscards (top 2 % of the grand total - which happens to be close to yearly inflation rate in general economy) are focused on and given priority over the rest as their playing stats indicate the highest probability of collector and investor recognition and potential for investment value growth over time. The best of the best maintains value and surpasses it, as a general view. Collectors and investors do well to factor in popularity, player stats and economic value as good indicators of why, what and who to invest in.
The determination of the selected players as been based on the individual statistical performances of each player while the selected items has factored in scarcity of the eldest top rookie cards, autographed and limited numbered cards per player. It is the assumption, taken by this site that a collector who would own the top 10 - 20 cards of the 'retro' top goalies, 'Retro' point producers and 'Retro' defenceman of every NHL franchise plus own the top 'active' NHL roster top producers per team rookie cards and those same players' top 10 'cards to own' would approx own about 8400 cards in their collection and have the best of the best the marketplace has ever had to offer and what the marketplace has most vested interest in. This, in theory, suggests less than 1% of the NHL sportscards in the marketplace are the main focus of this site and are for all tense and purposes the best of the best the industry has had to offer. Note that our lists change and will evolve over time due to marketplace fluctuations and in depth analysis by those investing in the updating of information found on this site;-but surely is the best of all guides to help collectors focus their collectors' and investment efforts, as it pertains to NHL sportcard collecting over time.
How marketplace prices are generally determined for sports cards
Card Pricing is based on the multiplication of three numbers -
1. PV - A Player Value. Every player has a unique player value based on fan popularity, achievements on the ice and media exposure, whether he or she is in a hall of fame and whether they are alive or not and how that effects the rarity and demand of their products in the marketplace.
For example: Wayne Gretzky & Bobby Orr would have an approx. PV = 1.00 since they are extremely popular, hall of famers, have numerous on ice achievements, media exposure, etc. Sidney Cosby & Alexander Ovechkin would have an approx. PV = 0.75 since they are extremely popular, are
progressively earning on ice achievements and have media exposure with the potential to be hall of famers. First line established and active stars ( Roberto Luongo & Vincent Lecavalier) would have an approx. PV = 0.25. Rookies would have an approx. PV = 0.15. Active regular players would have an approx. PV = 0.05.
2. SV - Series. Every series & sub series has a unique value given to them determined by the supply in the market of the product as described in industry market guides that compare price fluctuations every few months in the market place.
3. BV - Bend Value. Most of the time the bend value is set at 1.00 and does not effect the pricing of players no longer in active rosters, including hall of
famers. A bend value of 3.00 is attributed to active players on rosters while rookie cards are attributed a bend value of 5.00. It is indicative of reported selling prices.
For example: Patrick Roy is a hall of famer but not an active player so the price of his card would be determined as follows: PV for Patrick Roy
= 0.70 SV for Patrick Roy Invincible = $ 6.00 BV for Patrick Roy = 1.00 So 0.70 * 6.00 * 1.00 = $ 4.20 is value of that card. Eric Staal's rookie card in the Upperdeck Young Guns series made him an active player & rookie so the price of that rookie card was determined as follows: PV for Eric Staal = 0.15 SV for Eric Staal Upper Deck Young Guns = $ 40.00 BV for Eric Staal = 5.00 So 0.15 * 40.00 * 5.00 = $ 30.00 is the value of that card Note: Active Player Values fluctuate but generally once a year. Other posts in this blog shall offer a list of active and inactive player values.
1. PV - A Player Value. Every player has a unique player value based on fan popularity, achievements on the ice and media exposure, whether he or she is in a hall of fame and whether they are alive or not and how that effects the rarity and demand of their products in the marketplace.
For example: Wayne Gretzky & Bobby Orr would have an approx. PV = 1.00 since they are extremely popular, hall of famers, have numerous on ice achievements, media exposure, etc. Sidney Cosby & Alexander Ovechkin would have an approx. PV = 0.75 since they are extremely popular, are
progressively earning on ice achievements and have media exposure with the potential to be hall of famers. First line established and active stars ( Roberto Luongo & Vincent Lecavalier) would have an approx. PV = 0.25. Rookies would have an approx. PV = 0.15. Active regular players would have an approx. PV = 0.05.
2. SV - Series. Every series & sub series has a unique value given to them determined by the supply in the market of the product as described in industry market guides that compare price fluctuations every few months in the market place.
3. BV - Bend Value. Most of the time the bend value is set at 1.00 and does not effect the pricing of players no longer in active rosters, including hall of
famers. A bend value of 3.00 is attributed to active players on rosters while rookie cards are attributed a bend value of 5.00. It is indicative of reported selling prices.
For example: Patrick Roy is a hall of famer but not an active player so the price of his card would be determined as follows: PV for Patrick Roy
= 0.70 SV for Patrick Roy Invincible = $ 6.00 BV for Patrick Roy = 1.00 So 0.70 * 6.00 * 1.00 = $ 4.20 is value of that card. Eric Staal's rookie card in the Upperdeck Young Guns series made him an active player & rookie so the price of that rookie card was determined as follows: PV for Eric Staal = 0.15 SV for Eric Staal Upper Deck Young Guns = $ 40.00 BV for Eric Staal = 5.00 So 0.15 * 40.00 * 5.00 = $ 30.00 is the value of that card Note: Active Player Values fluctuate but generally once a year. Other posts in this blog shall offer a list of active and inactive player values.
The difference between purchasing a $ 1.00 rookie card from 1913 and its $ 9.00 rookie card equivalent in 2012 and why its still a bargain since it could be worth $ 23.37 : Why investing in sportscards is as great an investment as there is in the entire investment market
The difference between someone who bought a $ 1.00 RC in 1910 and one who buys a $ 1.00 RC in 2010 seems on the surface to be the same transaction in that the money value is the same yet one must consider that $ 1 in 1910 bought approximitly $ 20.00 worth of goods and services today exemplifing the notion that someone today who buys a $ 20.00 RC is getting the same value of a product as someone in 1910 did who bought a $ 1.00 RC. This is indicative of an annual 2.11 % inflation rate for goods and services over that time span. This is logically also reflected in the industry of memorabilia. Every year an investor who waits to purchase memorabilia costs them 2.11% and ensures they lose another 2.11% in profits over the length of the time they possess their collectable items. This is a 4.22% loss of value in their investment portfolio in that costs are lessened the next year for the rookie cards already bought and profits deferred to the positive side of the ledger in the investor's portfoilo. In the case of owning the top 5% of rookie cards in the marketplace, in 2010 alone, an investor increases their costs to acquire memorabilia at the 2.11% rate but also the 40%+ of added profitability they would acquire over time as these are to the collectors' industry what a penthouse is to a real estate owner and purchaser. This 40% premium is higher for the purchaser and suggests an investor is better off buying sooner than later, especially if said investor wishes to resell their purchased items within the first 5 years in a volitile marketplace or keep items for over 20 years.
With the notion that the rarity of a card increases over time and the value of a card increases for several intangible and tangible reasons one can, through analysis of the data, prove that 'time' increases the value of a card expontentially.
To simplify the above notion let us take into consideration the following scenario to demonstrate how a card increases, through inflationary pressure and based on currency value over time.
Scenario 1 :If someone asks you, as an investor, deciding to keep both cards for 25 years 'What has more value. Twenty five $ 50.00 1988 O Pee Chee Brett Hull rookie card or one 1966 Bobby Hull rookie card what would you say ...
Considering Bobby Hull and Brett Hull had similar accolades and were among best goal scorers, media and elite NHL name regonition popularity in their era, both played in long careers in top six traditional market teams, had same number of stanley cup championships and very similar career point per game statistical production throughout their career they are a good standard example to prove the case mentioned above of what constitutes a true investment today in acquiring their rookie cards. Let us begin to assume someone bought a 1988 O Pee Chee Brett Hull rookie card in 1988 the adjusted value of his card back then, incomparison to today would of been $31.65, as to today's $ 50.00. A 1965 O Pee Chee Bobby Hull rookie card in 1965 the adjusted value of his card
back then, incomparison to today would of been $639.31, compared to today's $ 3900.00. This would reflect that to maintain the same value and profitability as owning one Bobby Hull rookie card an investor would have to own 21 Brett Hull rookie cards. To a non astute, non investment type collector one would take 2010 prices of $3900.00 for a Bobby Hull and $50.00 for a Brett Hull rookie card and state that in reality one need own 78 Brett Hull rookie cards to make the same profit with a similar period of time. In this scenario buying 22 to 77 Brett Hull rookie cards then is automatic pure profit over time one would not get buying only 1 Bobby Orr rookie card. This gives value to less expensive, newer rookie cards as long as the intangible and statistic production of the players, notoriety, number of championships and individual awards and records are comparable to two players, whatever their year of their rookie card may be. For an investor who wishes to pay the least and maximize profits this makes a difference from the get go and makes one an astute memorabilia and rookie card investor. This reflects the fact that beyond nominal price values of selling products which is in itself just a matter of making profit there is certainly an underlining logic to acquiring memorabilia that should be instituted to maximize pleasure and profits in the long run, by understanding how inflation from the start of a item's creation and time of acquisition can get you the maximum for minimum costs.
This system of reflecting NOT what the price of the rookie card or memorabilia is as of today but how much in retro adjusted infaltion value it would of cost to acquire the item in the very beginning of its creation. This said a Bobby Hull rookie card from 1966 would of cost about $ 639.31 in adjusted value. A comparable rookie card today is Eric Staal's rookie card. Compare him to Bobby Hull in terrms of what he has accomplished in his career and then there is a fair debate as to who one should invest in. But comparing Bobby Hull's 3900$ rookie card to a rookie card of $3900 of a 2010 NHL player would be somewhat deceiving.
The main notion here is that a collector and investor must factor in when they bought a product, what they initially paid upfront for it and standardize comparisions between products on a timeframe of time. Specifically speaking, based on the above example, two cards after 20 years will increase in value percentage wise equally if the players notoriety, accolades and statistical production is similar. There is no difference between owning 21 Brett Hull cards bought in 1988 or one Bobby Hull 1966 card bought in 1966 because in 20 years they grew at similar pace percentage wise, give or take a few dollars ! The initial investment would be the same but the profits would amount to the same also over time.
On this site we have created a ratio to reflect the above to simplify your journey towards 21 Brett Hull's rather than 78 Brett Hull's, so to speak. We label our ratio as Time Adjusted Inflation Value (TAIV) as described above as statistic investors can consider beyond mere cost and selling values. Noone has done this before and we are proud to be the first to provide it. This ratio can be found in most product information boxes along with the rarity of the product and the career point per game production in the players' careers. In some cases career accolades are added as interesting tidbits to facilitate your choices as to how to invest and why to do so.
If buying and selling were ONLY about prices that never changed throughout time such a ratio would be insignificant but we think it is a ratio that makes it more predictable for investors to analyze and predict what to buy, how many to buy and to know why they are buying , beyond hype, which is what most of our competitiors thrive on. We believe in repeat business while others react to the possibility of them never having repeat business.
We, at this site, believe that in the short run a client should appreciate our good service and the efforts we put in simplifying their collectors' and investor's appetites but above all it is our wish that years from now our clients can be blown away at what it meant to invest and be members of our commercial community and see how we had more than profits in mind. We are willing to wait for that realization of our clients' but for our clients' interests to become fully accomplished we encourage you, as a collector and investor, to begin your future pleasure and profits with us right now.
Scenario 2: Two players have played the same exact number of games, had the same exact points per game production over their career, played for the same team in their career, possess the same amount of awards, media and fan popularity, championships and hall of fame induction. The only difference in fact being the fact that player 1's top valued and rare rookie card was in 1910 and the second was in 2010. The acquisition price of the 1910 rookie card was $ 1.00 back in 1910 and the acquisition of the 2010 rookie card was $ 20.00 in 2010 - the minimal price an investorshould expect to pay for the 1910 rookie card in 2010 is $ 20.00, also !!! If the 1910 rookie card was purchased below $ 20.00 then ultimately a bargain has been struck for the buyer. If this same 1910 rookie card was purchased above $ 20.00 then it it would be more investment prone to invest into the 2010 rookie card of player 2. That is rather logical in the present day as a purchaser of a rookie card and investor.
In 20 years, based on the stats of the past 100 years, the value of both the 1910 rookie card purchased then at $ 1.00 and the $20.00 rookie card purchased in 2010 will be exactly the same. The estimated value being $ 400.00 in 2110 for someone who purchased it from the investor - collector that owns it. That is the minimal expectation an investor can expect to receive upon selling the item then. The reality though is that, due to scarcity of both rookie cards a premium over the basic notion of inflationary pressures will most likely make theselling of the $ 400.00, be lots more than that amount. The difficulty will be to find someone who is interested in both a 100 and 200 year card for the value of the player himself yet over time scarcity takes over. The ultimate benefits will be 1. the pleasure of being a collector owning both rookie cards over a lifetime and passing it to the next generation and 2. The stabilizing notion that the percentage of increase in the value of the rookie cards is ultimately guaranteed and way above a vast majority of other 'financial' investments a person can make in its place 3. The notion that, compared to other investments such as real estate, no taxes nor renovation -maintenance type costs are associated woith such an investment 4. The reality that compared to owning a luxury good such as a $ 30,000 car that loses value over time and eventually need be replaced and isalso associated with maintenance and gas price influenced costs also one could in theory own 1500 $ 20.00 rookie cards that would require no maintenance costs and take up no more than a shelf's worth of space somewhere and be of extreme personal pleasure value and economic value. In 100 years $ 30,000 will not have paid for a decades worth of renovations to it and have netted on average a x% net return per year, the car bought for $ 30,000 will have cost an average of $ 10,000 per year to ride after the lease, licences, gas and maintenance have been factored into it and netted a loss of $ 50,000 loss on an investor's balance sheet after only 5 years of use - a high price to play for short term pleasure on the road, for sure! while a $ 30,000 investment in rookie cards will have increased, through inflationary economic pressures to $ 600,000!!!!!in value on oneès balance sheet and a net x% per year on one's investment balance sheet.
From an investor's standpoint there is no logic to not investing in a sure bet. Rookie cards and (sports) memorabilia are worth 'gold' and must easier to store, The only disavantage for someone who possesses such assets is having a marketplace and someone they trust to purchase these items at fair market value with an ability to sell it as fast as possible, if so desired by the investor. This is what keeps investors away but never frightens sports and memorabilia fans though because THEY know where the marketplace is for what THEY want. How many investments can say the marketing aspect is already sunken into the actions of the 'buyers'. This is where Statsworldcollectibles.com and its staff are experts. We do not just get you, the investor and collector perishable goods that seep through your budget but actually make you an active participant in your collecting pleasure and increase your financial worth. We do the marketing to buyers and we find the sellers. We do the research and we see the 'constructive - profitable' investment aspect of purchasing what we sell. We are collectors ourselves and thus buyers, sellers and intermediaries all in one and we appreciate the items beyond the mere economic value of them, though never neglecting it as well. :)
To truly inform our clientele that the information written above is accurate we are providing, a non collectible related set of information and references to
explain our necessity for the TAIV ratio, we will create on this site eventually, as described above.
In 1913 what one got for $ 1.00; in 1920 cost $ 2.02; in 1930 cost $ 1.69; in 1940 cost $ 1.41; in 1950 cost $ 2.43: in 1960 cost $ 2.99; in 1970 cost $ 3.92; in 1980 cost $ 8.32; in 1990 cost $ 13.20; in 2000 cost $ 17.39; in 2010 cost $ 22.03; in 2012 cost $ 23.37, all in U.S.$. http://146.142.4.24/cgi-bin/cpicalc.pl?cost1=1.00&year1=1913&year2=2012
This information is used to support the notion that every year the inflation rate has averaged 2.34% annually, in the past 100 years.
As it pertains to NHL sportscards the average sportscards, when factoring all the cards and estoimated values shown for each card in the marketplace since the very beginning http://www.beckett.com/price-guides/hockey (dated November 8th 2012) the $ 1.00 sportscard in 1913 has emerged to $ 9.00 per sportscard in 2012. In currency terms that means NHL sportscard are underpriced @ 1981 levels. This exemplifies that the inflation rate for per capita NHL sportscards has averaged 0.09% annually in the past 100+ years. This ultimately ensures that investors offset annual inflation increases in general economy by 3.8% by owning the average NHL sportscards, guaranteed !!!!...and that is the worst case scenario...not considering that in some cases, such as Sidney Crosby's top rookie card in the marketplace - presently at $ 7800.00, with about $500 invested in a pack to acquire him, a collector makes 73% annual inflation, in comparision. This is an extreme example meant to prove two truths about collecting NHL memorabilia. Its value never decreases and profit is as high as the initial investment put into it. In no case can an investor or collector ever lose value being a collector or investor as the worst NHL sportscard still offsets inflation. This does not even factor in the reality that scarcity, popularity and owning the best of the best assures that there ALWAYS be a better than annual inflation rate for investors and collectors. For those buying NHL sportscards one need consider the reality that buying the average NHL sportscard in the marketplace is done so at 61.5% less then inflation in any given year - paying $ 9.00 (in 2012) for average NHL sportscard instead of $ 23.37 (in 2012). Now consider what it means to pay 61.5% less for a commodity upfront with a worst case scenario 0.09% annual return on investment (for the average priced NHL sportscard in the marketplace) on the investment and the potentiel of 73% return on investment, ANNUALLY. Become aware of the purchasing power collectors and investors have when the pleasure of collecting meets the joy of huge profits when interacting and selling to other collectors. All this is known by astute investors but why everyone does not invest in it is as clear as the lack of accessibility to collectors and a marketyplace to trade in. This is where Statsworldcollectibles.com and its parent company N.M. Intermission steps in to create that marketplace for collectors and investors alike.
All in all a GREAT investment anyway you look at it and not as volatile as stocks, commodities with no maintenance costs nor taxes attributed to it !!!
The accuracy of this approximate number of the average inflation rate can be double checked by our clients and investors at their own convienence. We encourage it at such. In fact, stats, the integrity they underline and our appreciation of, call out for it. :)